🔗 Share this article

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.